Logical reasoning PrepTest 144 · Section 2 · Question 18

Incorrect. There doesn't need to be a rush for the article to be disproven for it to be wrong.

Correct. Argument or Facts:
Argument

Valid or Flawed:
Flawed

Question Type:
Strengthen with Necessary Premise

Stimulus Summary:
Some patients think they can predict when their health changes. This is analogous to a situation with babies and full moons, which has been disproven, so this situation should similarly not be trusted.

Answer Anticipation:
This argument relies heavily on the analogy between the two situations. Whenever an argument relies on an analogy, it's assuming that the two situations that are being analogized are similar on the relevant metrics. Therefore, since the argument doesn't actually compare the two situations outside of them both being based on anecdotes and highlighting invalid conclusions, we should look for an answer that establishes they're similar in any of the other details raised.

Answer Explanation:
This answer completes the comparison between the situation with the patients predicting changes in their medical status and babies born during a full moon. The rumor became widely believed, driving people to remember instances that aligned with it while forgetting those that didn't. For that situation to apply to the one about patients predicting changes in their medical status, a similar dynamic needs to play out here.

Key Takeaway:
When an argument relies on an analogy, it's assuming that the two things being analogized are similar along all relevant metrics. It usually doesn't establish that, however, and so the correct answer will generally bring up a point of similarity or difference, depending on what the question is asking you to do.

Incorrect. The argument doesn't rely on the patient's intentions in making the predictions—whether they were serious or not wouldn't affect whether they were right in their predictions.

Incorrect. If babies are equally likely to be born on a night with a full moon, the argument still works, so this answer is incorrect.

Incorrect. If anything, relating it to the baby situation that featured a widely held belief would suggest that the argument believes this to be a widely held belief, as well.