Logical reasoning PrepTest 144 · Section 2 · Question 16

Incorrect. The survey didn't reflect the current makeup of the legislature (the "actual state of affairs"), so this answer doesn't describe the argument.

Incorrect. This circular reasoning answer can be tempting, but there's enough of a shift between the premises (about the percentage of the population who supports each party) to the conclusion (about the desired makeup of the legislature) that the conclusion isn't a mere restatement of the premise—even if they sound very similar.

Correct. Argument or Facts:
Argument

Valid or Flawed:
Flawed

Question Type:
Errors in Reasoning

Stimulus Summary:
Survey question - Who do you want to see in the legislature?

40% - Conservatives
40% - Liberal
20% - Moderates

Therefore, if the results are right, most people want a 40/40/20 Conservative/Liberal/Moderate legislature.

Answer Anticipation:
It's hard to state what type of flaw is going on here, but let's walk through the details.

The surveyor called up people and asked them what party they wanted to win the election. Each person presumably answered with one of the three parties, and this broke down to 40% of people said Conservative, 40% Liberal, and 20% Moderate. From that, the survey concludes that the citizenry wants a legislature made up for 40/40/20 C/L/M.

However, that's not what the results show. Those 40% who want a Conservative legislature probably don't want 60% of the seats to be filled by Liberals and Moderates. Same for the supporters of the other parties.

We don't know what we'd call that flaw, but let's find an answer that reflects it.

Answer Explanation:
This answer takes some work to see how it's right. The group as a whole here is the people in the survey—and that group, as a whole, wanted a 40%/40%/20% split in the legislature, based on the survey results. From that, the argument concludes that "most citizens" would like to see that same split—when, in reality, each individual would probably want to see their preferred party with all or at least the vast majority of seats. This answer highlights the flawed reasoning in the stimulus and so it's correct. (Note this answer describes a whole/part flaw, but we still probably wouldn't have anticipated that!)

Key Takeaway:
First, when a conclusion has a condition attached—"If X is true . . . "—then it's likely to be relevant at least in ruling out an incorrect answer. Note these qualified conclusions when they show up!

Second, if you've eliminated all other answers, and there's one that is in the area you anticipated but you can't make heads nor tails of, pick it and move on. Don't get caught trying to make sense of something that's confusing you when you have other questions to tackle—you can always come back with fresh eyes and see if you change your mind.

Incorrect. Since the conclusion is conditioned on the survey results being reliable, the argument doesn't assume that they are—so it takes into account this possibility.

Incorrect. Since the percentages match between the premise and conclusion, it can't be the case that one is a rough estimate and the other is precisely quantified.