PrepTest 146

Correct. Argument or Facts:
Argument

Valid or Flawed:
Flawed

Question Type:
Errors in Reasoning

Stimulus Summary:
A nonprofit sent a survey to 5,000, received responses from 300, and 283 of them agreed with the nonprofit on an issue. Therefore, the majority of those receiving a letter agreed with the nonprofit on the issue.

Answer Anticipation:
300/5000 is a relatively small sample—especially since it required responding to a survey in a letter. Any time an argument relies on a survey, there's a chance of a sampling flaw, and here, there are some strong indicators that the 300 people who responded might not be representative of the 5000 who received the letter.

Answer Explanation:
This answer highlights the sampling flaw. Those who are willing to open a fundraising letter from a nonprofit and respond to a survey are almost certainly more likely to support the issues important to that nonprofit than those who throw that into the junk mail pile and never open it up.

Key Takeaway:
Whenever an argument relies on a survey, study, or poll, there's a chance of a sampling error. If there are any reasons to believe that the sample is unrepresentative, the correct answer is likely to address that.

Incorrect. The stimulus isn't about people's opinion over time, but rather about the opinion of the majority of the 5000 who received the fundraising letter.

Incorrect. This is a sampling flaw of a sort, but it's about people lying (or being mistaken) in their responses, not the sample itself being unrepresentative. There's no indication that the responses to the survey were misrepresenting the views of those who actually responded.

Incorrect. This answer is almost the opposite of what the argument does! There, the opinion held by a strong majority of a small subset of a population is used to draw a conclusion about the majority of the population overall.

Incorrect. If anything, the argument assumes that the fundraising letter didn't impact people's beliefs and that they truly agreed with the position.