Logical reasoning PrepTest 143 · Section 4 · Question 14

Correct. Argument or Facts:
Facts

Question Type:
Paradox

Stimulus Summary:
Fact 1 – Car thefts are down over the past 5 years
Fact 2 – Car thieves are more likely to be convicted

Answer Anticipation:
The stem asks us to find an answer that explains the two facts cited in the stimulus, so it's important that we know what those two facts are. Looking at them, this question isn't as paradoxical as our normal Paradox question, as the two facts don't really contradict each other. Instead, we need an answer that accounts for both of these facts—something that both explains why car thefts are down and how conviction rates are up. It'll probably be difficult to thread that needle ourselves—and, at the very least, it'll probably take a lot of time to anticipate something specific—so let's head into the answer choices knowing what the correct answer has to do and spend our time analyzing those answers.

Answer Explanation:
There being fewer car thieves now than 5 years ago accounts for the lower number of thefts. And if someone is still driving the stolen car when the owner notices it's been stolen, then that increases the chances that they're still driving it when it's reported, and that the cops will find them in the car—which would make it a lot easier to convict. This answer explains both facts, so it's our answer.

Key Takeaway:
Some Paradox questions are less about resolving a paradox than explaining a situation or set of facts. Whatever the specifics of the question, focus on answering why something is happening.

Incorrect. If people are ignoring car alarms when they're triggered, this doesn't explain why there are fewer cars being stolen (the alarms don't seem to be doing much) or why there are more convictions (again, the car alarms aren't catching people's attention when a car is being stolen).

Incorrect. If police resources are going increasingly to other crimes, then it'd be expected that convictions would go down for the crimes that they aren't focused on. This answer also does not address why car thefts are going down.

Incorrect. This answer would suggest that car theft should be increasing (more motivation) and convictions decreasing (the car being chopped up for parts making it harder to find).

Incorrect. This answer suggests that car thieves are increasing, which should increase car thefts. Also, the sentences don't speak to the conviction rate, so this doesn't address the second fact at all.