Logical reasoning PrepTest 135 · Section 4 · Question 14

Question prompt

Geographer: Because tropical storms Remaining source text redacted.
Why the credited answer is right

Credited answer: E

The notes below walk through why it fits the stem and how to eliminate the rest.

Argument or Facts

Argument

Valid or Flawed

Valid

Question Type

Main Point Questions

Stimulus Summary

Initial information about global warming and tropical storms led to predictions that the former would cause the latter, but more recent information suggests other changes are likely to balance it out, so the predictions are likely wrong.

Answer Anticipation

“[M]any early predictions…” should have immediately made you think that you were dealing with an opposing point that the Geographer would pivot away from, and she does in the very next statements - “But…” And here, the Geographer pivots to a statement about the likelihood that the opposing point will turn out to be true - a classic sign that it’s the argument’s main point. That’s supported by the following sentence, which provides a reason to believe the prediction will prove to be wrong. So the pivot statement is our main point, and we should rephrase it to include the full idea:
Recent research into other factors affecting tropical storm development shows that predictions about global warming leading to more tropical storms are unlikely to be borne out.

Answer choices

  1. A
    Tropical storms are especially Remaining source text redacted.
    Why choice A is not credited
    This is an observation that led to the initial predictions the Geographer thinks will prove to be wrong. It’s a premise that forms the background of the debate.
  2. B
    Contrary to early discussions, Remaining source text redacted.
    Why choice B is not credited
    This statement isn’t even a part of the stimulus. While the Geographer does state that other factors changing will likely balance out global warming’s effects on storms, that’s different from saying the initial discussion didn’t think other factors were relevant to storm formation. That said, even if you viewed this answer as reflecting the last sentence, it’s a premise, not the main point.
  3. C
    If global warming were Remaining source text redacted.
    Why choice C is not credited
    The conclusion is about the prediction made by those involved in early global warming discussion, not a prediction about what would happen if global warming were reversed. This statement doesn’t appear anywhere in the stimulus, so it’s wrong.
  4. D
    Instabilities in wind flow Remaining source text redacted.
    Why choice D is not credited
    First, the stimulus states that instabilities in wind flow is one of several factors that are likely to counteract global warming, so this answer makes a key shift from the stimulus. Second, ignoring that, it’s a premise since it introduces evidence used to back up the conclusion that the predictions about global warming are likely wrong.
  5. E
    Global warming probably will Remaining source text redacted.
    Why choice E matches the stem
    This argument isn’t a case where the conclusion states that an opposing point is invalid - it’s a case where the conclusion is that the opposing viewpoint is likely wrong (“unlikely to be borne out”). Saying predictions are likely wrong is the same as saying the opposite of that prediction is probably right, so this is the correct answer.

What this tests

Question analytics

Based on historical answer selection rates for this question.

Answer choice distribution

  1. A 2%
  2. B 18%
  3. C 1%
  4. D 8%
  5. E Credited 71%

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