Logical reasoning PrepTest 102 · Section 4 · Question 7

Correct. Argument or Facts:
Argument

Valid or Flawed:
Flawed

Question Type:
Strengthen

Stimulus Summary:
Prediction - Lower ceilings on halibut catches will hurt consumers
Why? Supply and demand - fish prices will go up

Answer Anticipation:
The argument makes a prediction about the effect of a given change—lowering halibut catch ceilings will hurt consumers.

How will it hurt consumers? By increasing the price of fish.

Why will it increase the price of fish? Supply and demand.

But that's a general theory—it's not a full reason to believe that the price will go up without having information to know how it applies in this case.

The short version of that law applied here is that, if demand is the same but supply goes down, then price will go up. So, in order to support this claim, we should look for an answer stating that the lower ceilings will decrease supply but not demand.

Answer Explanation:
This answer establishes half of the assumption we identified. If, after the new restrictions, demand doesn't go down, then supply going down would lead to the predicted increase in price. And since lower ceilings suggest less room for halibut to be caught, there's some evidence for a decrease in supply, further strengthening the prediction.

Key Takeaway:
"Laws" are generally conditional in nature—establishing a triggering condition for when they apply, and stating the outcome. As such, to know that a law applies, it needs to be established that the triggering/sufficient condition is met by the situation.

Incorrect. The argument establishes that the law of supply and demand applies here, so this answer doesn't add anything.

Incorrect. Even if other fish are made in higher supply, that doesn't mean consumers wouldn't be hurt by the increase in price in halibut—maybe they really like halibut!

Incorrect. Without knowing if this means the demand will go up or down, there's no way to factor this in. It's also about other fish, not halibut, so it's a bit out of scope.

Incorrect. No matter how common or rare it is to eat halibut, consumers who do consume the fish would still be hurt by an increase in price, so this answer doesn't affect the argument.