Answer A

never mind! I just figured it out.

Hi YCKIM2180, Posting in case anyone in the future has the same question. In the scenario, the aggressor country has taken a risk that is fairly minor in the long term in order to gain significant resources. This fits with how the passage describes rational decision makers in lines 18-40. That is, the possible gains must significantly outweigh the risk. In this case the risk is moderate (tolerable harm), and the gains are large (great mineral wealth).