PrepTest 144

Incorrect. The new jobs don't need to "most[ly]" be in fields that "pay well"—there just need to be enough in fields that pay better than day care in order to attract away enough day-care workers to create a shortage.

Correct. Argument or Facts:
Argument

Valid or Flawed:
Flawed

Question Type:
Strengthen with Necessary Premise

Stimulus Summary:
Economy stronger → Demand for day care will increase
Economy stronger → Many current day-care workers will quit for better-paying jobs
Therefore: Economy stronger will likely make it harder to find day care

Answer Anticipation:
Like any good Economist, this one considers both supply and demand in an area when the economy improves. According to her, the demand for day care will increase when the economy gets stronger, but the supply of day-care workers will go down as many quit their jobs for better-paying ones. If demand is up and supply is down, then it will, in fact, be harder to find day care.

However, while the stimulus notes incontrovertible evidence that demand will go up, it doesn't establish that supply will go down—just that many current day-care workers will find other jobs. However, it's possible that there will be new day-care workers who take those jobs to fill in for the demand, thus not resulting in a shortage.

Since the argument assumes that supply won't increase to meet demand, the correct answer will have to establish something necessary for that to be true.

Answer Explanation:
This answer establishes that, as the economy improves, the number of people who take on day-care work won't outweigh the number of people who leave that work. Therefore, supply will not meet demand and a shortage will result. This is necessary for the argument to work. (And note that word "significantly"—it's a great word in that it doesn't set a specific amount, it just guarantees that it's enough to matter, which is all we need in this argument.)

Key Takeaway:
Whenever an argument on the LSAT is noting changes, start to consider other potential changes. While it may be true that some people would leave their day-care jobs, it's just as likely that new people would take on day-care jobs now that demand is up. Without considering that, the argument doesn't establish that supply actually will go down.

Incorrect. If the number of workers at day-care centers stay the same or increase only slightly, an increase in demand could still cause a shortage, so the number doesn't have to go down for the argument to work.

Incorrect. The Economist's argument is that a stronger economy would result in day-care shortages. It doesn't have to be the only cause of day-care shortages for that to be true.

Incorrect. This answer brings in a key idea that isn't present in the stimulus (cost), so it's unlikely to be necessary. This answer is trying to get you to start thinking about cost curves and demand—it's too technical to be correct!