PrepTest 148

Incorrect. First, this answer is about one business increasing its profits, whereas the stimulus discussed businesses seeing decreasing profits and not seeing decreasing profits—that latter group may have increasing profits, but it's not certain. Second, even if we ignore that, this answer still wouldn't explain why the businesses increasing their profits aren't the ones doing the customer surveys.

Incorrect. Great, but why are those businesses the ones that are seeing declining profits?

Correct. Argument or Facts:
Facts

Question Type:
Paradox

Stimulus Summary:
Study: Profits declined in businesses that used customer surveys to improve sales and didn't decline in those that didn't.

Answer Anticipation:
Since the surveys are used by businesses to increase sales and profits, the expectation would be that businesses using them would achieve that goal. However, a study done showed the opposite—the businesses using surveys saw a decline in profits, and those not using surveys didn't see a decline. Noting that these two groups are compared along these metrics can suggest an answer—there must be something different about the first group of businesses to explain their drop in profits.

We could stop there, but a survey was done, so we can think about the sample to see if there's an issue that might be addressed in the correct answer. Here, the survey didn't use a random sample—it looked at businesses that were issuing surveys, and those that weren't; a random sample would have picked a bunch of businesses and had some send out surveys while others didn't. We can use this along with the comparison we identified to anticipate a more specific answer—mainly, that the businesses that issued surveys might have done so because they were already having issues with declining profits, whereas the other businesses were doing fine.

Answer Explanation:
This answer highlights a potential difference between the two businesses. If the ones that issued the surveys were already dealing with customer issues, that could explain their declining profits as they work to address those issues. This answer builds off of the comparison and sampling issues we identified, but indirectly, meaning that the anticipation would very much help pick this answer on a first pass.

Key Takeaway:
Don't neglect to analyze potential errors in reasoning in Paradox questions, even when they don't feature an argument. Elements that can be flawed—such as the survey here—can hint at a resolution to a paradox.

Incorrect. Even if a few customers aren't responding accurately, the vast majority of the response could still be good information that would help a business address any issues. This answer is trying to get you to think that the businesses losing money were responding to bad information, but even if some of that information was bad, it's not established that that would lead to a decrease in profits.

Incorrect. Even if none of those businesses analyzed the results, that would at best explain why they didn't have a benefit over the other businesses, not why they were worse off than the ones not doing surveys at all.