PrepTest 138

Incorrect. It isn't established whether the retailers offer a similar discount for those who rent the game. Whether they do or not, however, it's unclear how this would impact the prediction about people buying the game soon.

Correct. Argument or Facts:
Argument

Valid or Flawed:
Flawed

Question Type:
Strengthen

Stimulus Summary:
A new game is so good that people want to finish it. It can be purchased or rented for 2 days; if rented, the cost is discounted from the sale price. Sales are at and rentals are above expectations, so sales will soon exceed expectations.

Answer Anticipation:
In general, predictions are suspect because they base something about the future on information from the past/present. The publisher is predicting that sales will "exceed expectations" soon, so we need to look into what's driving her to make that prediction and see if it allows information about what is currently true to drive this prediction about the future.

So why does she believe that sales will go up? It must be related to the rentals, as they're currently exceeding expectations and there's no other reason to believe sales will go up (e.g., positive reviews were just released). And why does she believe that rentals will drive sales? People can get a discount based on the rental price, but that doesn't explain why they would decide to exercise that option. There is a reason, though, to believe that people would go on to buy the game after the 2-day rental—people want to finish the game. If they can't do that in 2 days, they might want to either rent the game for another 2-day period, or buy the game.

That's a big "if," however. If the game can be completed in 2 days, then there's no reason to believe those rentals that are exceeding expectations will translate to sales. Even if the game can be completed in 4 days, there's reason to believe that people would just rent it twice instead of renting then buying. So let's find an answer stating that it takes significantly longer than 2 days to beat the game.

Answer Explanation:
If it takes several weeks to beat the game, then people wouldn't complete it in one rental period. If someone rents the game and becomes "preoccupied" with beating it, but they can't complete it in even 3 or 4 rental periods, then there's a good chance they'll purchase it, justifying the prediction.

Key Takeaway:
Predictions are generally flawed because they assume that the future will follow the trends of the past/present. Start digging into the logic behind a prediction to see if that is justified (it rarely will be).

Incorrect. This answer applies to the publisher generally, not this game specifically. It also doesn't justify a prediction of an imminent increase in sales so that they're above expectations—this would be true of the publisher/its games when the game was released, currently, and in the future.

Incorrect. If anything, this answer raises the possibility of someone renting the game, beating it, and not touching it again, thus not purchasing it. (Of course, this assumes the game can be completed that quickly, which is why this analysis is just pointing out the general direction this answer choice is pointing—against the argument instead of for it.)

Incorrect. What is true of "[s]ome" people will unlikely affect an argument that's talking more generally.