PrepTest 117

Incorrect. The stimulus notes that either of the two noted phenomena—including car sales troughing—had failed to occur, then the conclusion that the economy is in bad shape couldn't be reached, so highlighting one of the two as being sufficient to reach that conclusion is unsupported.

Incorrect. The stimulus notes two signs that, taken together, are sufficient to indicate the probability of a bad economy. That leaves open the possibility that there are other sufficient signs of a bad economy. This answer, in reversing the relationship and making those two signs necessary conditions, ignores that possibility. It's an illegal reversal of the stimulus and is thus unsupported.

Incorrect. The stimulus notes that the real estate market and car market together being down is sufficient to suggest a bad economy. This answer is a negation of part of that relationship, so it's unsupported.

Correct. Argument or Facts:
Argument

Valid or Flawed:
Flawed

Question Type:
Must Be True

Stimulus Summary:
Real estate and car sales are down. Either alone doesn't mean the economy is bad; both together means it probably is. So the economy is bad.

Answer Anticipation:
This stimulus creates a relationship between real estate and car sales, and the economy as a whole. If either of the first two markets are doing poorly while the other isn't, the economy might still be doing well (being consistent" with doesn't mean that it's guaranteed—just that it's possible). However, if both are doing poorly, then it's probable that the economy is doing poorly. In other words, both markets being down is sufficient to show that the economy probably isn't doing well.

Now, these aren't pure conditionals because of the likelihood mentioned in it. However, the stimulus does talk in terms of sufficiency, and so we can look for answers that mirror conditionality as long as they also have the same likelihood language. As such, we should look for an answer that connects both markets being down to the economy being unhealthy (or an economy being healthy proving that it's likely at least one of these markets is doing well).

Answer Explanation:
The final statement establishes a relationship between an economy where both the real estate and car markets are down and the economy that is bad as a whole. This answer choice is the "contrapositive" of that, where a good economy indicates that both of those markets aren't down. It also matches the strength of the stimulus, so this is the correct answer.

Key Takeaway:
Sometimes, there are relationships established that aren't actually conditionals because they're not 100% certain, but they mirror conditionals in that something is established as sufficient to suggest something else is true. Don't get too wrapped up in diagramming them, but do understand the relationship and the direction it flows in, while noting any of the uncertain language that will need to be mirrored in the correct answer.

Incorrect. This answer reverses the connection—the two markets being in a slump indicate that the economy is down, not the other way around. A down economy could be the result of things other than these two markets.