PrepTest 124

Incorrect. Phoebe does this, but the question stem asks us about Quincy's rebuttal. He doesn't believe that the correlation is proof positive of a causal relationship.

Incorrect. Quincy doesn't question whether the strange glowing lights happened or whether they were around the same time and place as the earthquakes—the data that Phoebe relies on. He questions whether they're linked, stating there's good reason to believe the correlation was just a coincidence.

Correct. Argument or Facts:
Argument/Argument

Valid or Flawed:
Flawed/Flawed

Question Type:
Methods of Reasoning

Stimulus Summary:
P: The strange lights were seen around the time of earthquakes, so they were probably earthquake lights.

Q: Earthquakes causing lightning is extremely speculative, so I'm skeptical the earthquakes caused the strange glowing lights.

Answer Anticipation:
Phoebe's argument falls into a classic flaw—a correlation/causation jump. She uses the cluster[ing]" of the strange lights at the time and place of earthquakes to conclude that the earthquakes were "almost certainly" the cause of those lights.

Quincy points out there's reason to be skeptical of Phoebe's conclusion. While he does address a correlation/causation issue, he doesn't do so about the specific cases in question—whether these earthquakes caused these strange glowing lights. Instead, he questions whether earthquakes ever cause strange glowing lights. From that, he doesn't conclude Phoebe is wrong, but rather that she might be (skepticism doesn't commit you to the opposite view).

Let's find an answer that reflects this rebuttal.

Answer Explanation:
Quincy claims that the connection Phoebe relies on—that between earthquakes and lightning—is "extremely speculative." That matches up with this answer's claim that her explanation is "unsubstantiated, and so this is the correct answer.

Key Takeaway:
For Methods of Reasoning questions that feature a rebuttal that is asked about, make sure to understand what parts of the initial speaker's argument are addressed by the second speaker, and how they're addressed.

Incorrect. Quincy undermines Phoebe's explanation, but he never offers one of his own.

Incorrect. While Quincy questions the accuracy of Phoebe's information, he doesn't question its relevance. If the extremely speculative" link between earthquakes and lightning is true, then it can serve as an explanation for the strange glowing lights and thus would be relevant.