Reading comp PrepTest 157 · Section 4 · Question 12
Passage
Passage A Markets, such as stock exchanges, distill the collective wisdom of millions of individuals into a single number, and
Remaining source text redacted.
Passage walkthrough
Passage Summary Topic:
Social Science
Passage A
Paragraph 1
Passage B
Paragraph 1
Main Points?
Passage A: Markets, including prediction markets, reflect the collective knowledge of many investors with remarkable efficiency.
Passage B: Markets, including prediction markets, are not inherently reliable; instead, they merely reflect the majority opinion at any given time.
Key Lines?
Passage A: Paragraph 1, Sentence 2 (P1, S1) - Author's attitude toward markets
P1, S2 - Contrast to committees and polls
P2, S2 - Example of a reliable forecast market
P2, S5 - Illustration of efficiency
P2, S2 - Reason
P3, S1 - Another reason
Passage B: P1, S1 - Author's attitude toward markets
P2, S1 - Example of unreliable forecast market
P3, S1 - Comparison
P4, S2 - Author's explanation of markets' function
Meta-Structure? Relationship Between Passages?
Relationship - Opposing Viewpoints: The authors of these two passages have opposing viewpoints. The author of passage A places a lot of ... ahem ... stock into markets, particularly in their efficiency and accurate forecasting. In contrast, the author of passage B does not believe markets are inherently trustworthy or accurate predictors, instead claiming that they merely reflect the majority opinion at a given time. Even so, there are a few moments in which these authors find common ground. Both think forecast/prediction markets reflect what the market as a whole believes (PA, P2, S6; PB, P2, S2), and both think the requirement that you invest money into a market makes markets at least slightly more reliable than polls (PA, P1, S2; PB, P4, S4).
Example (Both): Both passages bring up an example — the same example, in fact — to prove a minor point. In passage A, the author cites the accuracy of the Iowa Electronic Markets to illustrate the reliability of markets, as opposed to polls (PA, P2, S2). In passage B, the author cites a recent election in which the Iowa Electronic Markets' forecast was inaccurate for nearly a year to illustrate how markets are not infallible (PB, P2). Since the same example is used in both passages — and both are used to support each passage's main point — we should expect at least one question about them.
Comparison (Both): Both passages compare markets to polls. And both claim that markets are at least somewhat more reliable than polls, as markets require people to back up their opinions with money (PA, P1, S2; PB, P4, S4). This is a point on which the authors agree, in passages in which they mostly disagree, so we should expect a question on this as well.
Last Thoughts?
This is a quintessential Opposing Viewpoint passage, so expect several questions about the authors’ disagreement, and at least one question about a point of agreement.
Social Science
Passage A
Paragraph 1
- Paragraph note
- Author: Efficiency of markets
- Views, minor Meta-Structures, points of intersection, and the author's attitude
- Comparison: Efficiency of markets (requires "hard dollars," rewards people who are "right") vs. committees/polls (doesn't require dollars, rewards loudest/most prestigious)
- Author's attitude: "amazing efficiency" (first sentence)
- Paragraph note
- of "forecast market"
- Views, minor Meta-Structures, points of intersection, and the author's attitude
- Example: Iowa Electronic Market (second through last sentence)
- Paragraph note
- Support: Market's efficiency
- Views, minor Meta-Structures, points of intersection, and the author's attitude
- Definition: Efficiency: Market learns what informed people know (first sentence)
- Example: Experiment with fictional stock and "insiders" (second through last sentence)
- Author's attitude: "lightning fast and very accurately" (first sentence)
Passage B
Paragraph 1
- Paragraph note
- Author: Markets not perfect
- Views, minor Meta-Structures, points of intersection, and the author's attitude
- Author's attitude: "not infallible" (first sentence), "get over it" (last sentence)
- Paragraph note
- Support: Iowa Electronic Market's inaccuracy
- Views, minor Meta-Structures, points of intersection, and the author's attitude
- Undermines Passage A, second paragraph
- Paragraph note
- Comparison to horseracing
- Views, minor Meta-Structures, points of intersection, and the author's attitude
- Comparison: Lower price of stock = greater odds for horse
- Paragraph note
- Author's correction: Prediction polls simply reflect majority opinion at a given time
- Views, minor Meta-Structures, points of intersection, and the author's attitude
- Similarity to passage A: Similar definition of "forecast" market from the second paragraph
- Similarity to passage A: claims that "entrance fees" of markets is an advantage over polls like passage A's author did in the first paragraph
- Author's attitude: "merely reflect" (first sentence), "does not imbue them with any special omniscience" (second sentence), "more serious responses," "just as potentially wrong" (third sentence)
Main Points?
Passage A: Markets, including prediction markets, reflect the collective knowledge of many investors with remarkable efficiency.
Passage B: Markets, including prediction markets, are not inherently reliable; instead, they merely reflect the majority opinion at any given time.
Key Lines?
Passage A: Paragraph 1, Sentence 2 (P1, S1) - Author's attitude toward markets
P1, S2 - Contrast to committees and polls
P2, S2 - Example of a reliable forecast market
P2, S5 - Illustration of efficiency
P2, S2 - Reason
P3, S1 - Another reason
Passage B: P1, S1 - Author's attitude toward markets
P2, S1 - Example of unreliable forecast market
P3, S1 - Comparison
P4, S2 - Author's explanation of markets' function
Meta-Structure? Relationship Between Passages?
Relationship - Opposing Viewpoints: The authors of these two passages have opposing viewpoints. The author of passage A places a lot of ... ahem ... stock into markets, particularly in their efficiency and accurate forecasting. In contrast, the author of passage B does not believe markets are inherently trustworthy or accurate predictors, instead claiming that they merely reflect the majority opinion at a given time. Even so, there are a few moments in which these authors find common ground. Both think forecast/prediction markets reflect what the market as a whole believes (PA, P2, S6; PB, P2, S2), and both think the requirement that you invest money into a market makes markets at least slightly more reliable than polls (PA, P1, S2; PB, P4, S4).
Example (Both): Both passages bring up an example — the same example, in fact — to prove a minor point. In passage A, the author cites the accuracy of the Iowa Electronic Markets to illustrate the reliability of markets, as opposed to polls (PA, P2, S2). In passage B, the author cites a recent election in which the Iowa Electronic Markets' forecast was inaccurate for nearly a year to illustrate how markets are not infallible (PB, P2). Since the same example is used in both passages — and both are used to support each passage's main point — we should expect at least one question about them.
Comparison (Both): Both passages compare markets to polls. And both claim that markets are at least somewhat more reliable than polls, as markets require people to back up their opinions with money (PA, P1, S2; PB, P4, S4). This is a point on which the authors agree, in passages in which they mostly disagree, so we should expect a question on this as well.
Last Thoughts?
This is a quintessential Opposing Viewpoint passage, so expect several questions about the authors’ disagreement, and at least one question about a point of agreement.
Question prompt
Passage B, but not
Remaining source text redacted.
Why the credited answer is right
Credited answer: B
The notes below walk through why it fits the stem and how to eliminate the rest.
Question Type
Social Science
Answer choices
-
Amarket crashes
Why choice A is not credited
Do you remember reading anything about "market crashes" in either passage? Probably not. A time-conscious test-taker might take that lack of memory as a tell-tale sign that "market crashes" were not mentioned in either passage. If you really wanted to check, CTRL/Command+F would reveal that the topic of "crashes" was not mentioned at all. -
Bracetracks
Why choice B matches the stem
Question Type:
Minor Point/Must Be True
Strategy Overview:
Review the passages' main points, Meta-Structures, and notes about the paragraphs' roles, then select the answer choice that includes a feature of passage B's argument that was not part of passage A's
Answer Anticipation:
For this question, we're looking for a detail that was included in passage B that was not included in passage A. Unlike the first four questions in this passage, this is not a particularly anticipatable question. Instead, we should rely on our memory of and notes for each passage, using those select the answer choice that presents a detail included in passage B but not passage A. It should also be noted that this is a question for which the search function (CTRL/Command+F) might be helpful.
Answer Choice Explanation:
The third paragraph of passage B compares markets to racetracks. This analogy shows how passage B's author thinks markets just reflect the general opinion about an asset's "health" or value (PB, P3). The author of passage A thinks markets are far more predictive than this, so it's unsurprising that passage A never mentions racetracks when making its argument. So, this answer choice presents a detail included in passage B but not A, and it is correct.
Key Takeaway:
Sometimes, making notes helps you answer certain questions more quickly, even if you ultimately don't use those notes to answer those questions. The paragraph about racetracks was somewhat unusual and easy to forget. However, jotting down a quick note about that analogy helps us remember the analogy. This allows us to answer this question quickly, irrespective of whether we looked back at those notes. -
Cinsiders
Why choice C is not credited
"Insiders" is a concept described in passage A (PA, P3) but not in B. This makes (C) incorrect. -
Dpolls
Why choice D is not credited
We noted that the authors agree on markets' superiority to polls (PA, P1, S2; PB, P4, S4), so we can quickly eliminate this answer choice. -
Econtracts
Why choice E is not credited
Do you remember reading anything about "contracts" in passage B? Probably not. A time-conscious test-taker might take that lack of memory as a tell-tale sign that "contracts" were not mentioned in passage B. If you really wanted to check, CTRL/Command+F would reveal that the topic of "contracts" was only mentioned in passage A, in its description of the Iowa Electronic Markets.
What this tests
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Answer choice distribution
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