Logical reasoning PrepTest 149 · Section 1 · Question 12

Correct. Argument or Facts:
Argument

Valid or Flawed:
Flawed

Question Type:
Errors in Reasoning

Stimulus Summary:
Polls show the party that supported a bill is likely to lose a lot of seats, so the bill must be unpopular.

Answer Anticipation:
A poll was done in this argument, so we should start by considering a sampling flaw, and a correlation/causation flaw.

There's no discussion of the sample in the poll, so unless an answer choice actively brings up that it was skewed in some way (e.g., the poll was of all people, not just the voters in the conclusion), there's no sampling flaw.

What about a correlation/causation flaw? Well, the argument is based on a correlation. The major party is likely to lose seats, and the major party supported a certain bill. The assumption does appear to be causal here—that the losing of seats is because of their support for the bill. It may not be a perfect correlation/causation flaw, but seeing it through that lens helped us to spot the gap—there are other reasons that the majority party could be about to lose seats unrelated to their support for this specific bill. Any answer highlighting this would be correct.

Answer Explanation:
This answer highlights that the Legislator assumes the bill is the reason that the voters are likely to vote against the party. That majority party could be unpopular for other reasons, and the bill could even be popular but not popular enough to overcome other unpopular moves by that party. This answer is correct.

Key Takeaway:
Polls, surveys, and studies tend to have sampling flaws and correlation/causation flaws. When you see an argument that relies crucially on one of these, start by looking for these two flaws. You'll find one a majority of the time.

Incorrect. The conclusion of the argument is about the popularity of the bill, not whether it's a good bill. This answer would be correct if the argument concluded a bill was bad because it was unpopular.

Incorrect. The polls didn't presuppose the unpopularity of the bill—it asked about voter preferences.

Incorrect. The legislator produces poll results to support her conclusion. Those poll results aren't good support for her conclusion, but it provides a basis more than wishful thinking for the conclusion.

Incorrect. Similar to (B), the argument's conclusion is about a bill's popularity, not if it's a good bill. They don't need relevant expertise to speak to whether they like a bill (sadly . . . ).