Logical reasoning PrepTest 140 · Section 2 · Question 6

Correct. Argument or Facts:
Argument

Valid or Flawed:
Flawed

Question Type:
Strengthen with Necessary Premise

Stimulus Summary:
Getting away with certain crimes repeatedly increases both confidence and the likelihood of being caught. So most people who commit these crimes will likely be caught.

Answer Anticipation:
The conclusion of this argument sees the Detective stating that it's likely that most people who embezzle or bribe will be caught. Why so much faith in the system? Because the more times someone commits a crime, the greater the chance that they'll be caught. So the more often someone commits a crime, the more likely they are to get caught.

But in order to conclude, therefore, that most people are likely to be caught, the argument is assuming that most people commit these crimes multiple times. If the majority of embezzlers or bribers commit the crime only once, then the increased likelihood of getting caught from multiple infractions wouldn't apply, and the argument would fall apart. Let's find an answer stating that most people who commit these crimes do it multiple times.

Answer Explanation:
This answer establishes that people commit these crimes repeatedly, thus increasing the odds that they'll get caught, and leading to the conclusion. If the majority of embezzlers and bribers don't commit the crimes repeatedly, then the Detective's argument falls apart, making this the correct answer.

Key Takeaway:
Be sure to identify what information supports the conclusion and what information is extraneous. Here, the confidence is never directly related to getting caught, and the Detective pivots from that information to discussing the increased chances of getting caught with repeated crimes. That means the latter is more likely to factor into the correct answer than the former.

Incorrect. This answer does connect to the Detective's statements, but not to the premise that she uses to justify the conclusion. There's no direct connection between confidence and getting caught, so this answer is out of scope.

Incorrect. Without knowing the "solve" rate of other crimes, this answer can't be necessary to establish that "most" embezzlers/bribers will get caught.

Incorrect. The argument doesn't require carelessness to work. The criminals could be just as careful in crime #20 as crime #1, and yet the sheer number of crimes and associated evidence thus allows the justice system to prove guilt.

Incorrect. The Detectives conclusion is that most people who commit these crimes will be caught at some point, so someone getting caught the first time they commit the crime does as much to support that conclusion as someone caught after the fiftieth.