Logical reasoning PrepTest 132 · Section 2 · Question 4

Incorrect. This doesn't bring up a reason to believe that they'll decide to sell those shares when they've previously refused to do so.

Incorrect. There's no indication that she hasn't made this offer before—in fact, she may have made an even better offer before! There's no indication Azedcorp is refusing to sell because they wouldn't make enough money from the sale, so this answer doesn't explain why they'd change their minds.

Incorrect. First, there might be people with unexpressed interest in buying The Daily. Second, this doesn't provide a reason for Azedcorp to change their minds and sell the paper.

Incorrect. She still can't get to a majority without getting some of Azedcorp's shares, and there's no indication here that they're now willing to sell.

Correct. Argument or Facts:
Argument

Valid or Flawed:
Flawed

Question Type:
Strengthen

Stimulus Summary:
Morris wants to be majority shareholder of The Daily. Azedcorp is the majority shareholder and refuses to sell.
Prediction: Morris will soon be the majority shareholder.

Answer Anticipation:
Based on the stem, this is Strengthen question. However, in practice, it feels more like a Paradox question—we're tasked with explaining how something can happen when the situation dictates a reason to believe it won't.

As such, we can fall back on some of the skills we use in that question type, and we should always use what we know about concepts important to the question—such as the prediction here.

Predictions are usually flawed because they're based on what's currently true or expected to be true, and things could always change in the future. Here, since we're trying to justify a prediction that something will change in the future, we can flip that around—we need to highlight a change that will explain this other change.

So anything that highlights something that will change about Azedcorp that suggests its current position of holding its shares of The Daily will change in the future will strengthen the prediction.

Answer Explanation:
This answer highlights something that has changed and would result in Azedcorp needing to sell, changing their policy of steadfastly refusing to do so. In highlighting a relevant change between the past when a sale was refused and the future when analysts predict Azedcorp will sell, this answer strengthens that prediction.

Key Takeaway:
Predictions are generally flawed because they're based on things that are currently true or are currently believed to be true in the future. However, those things could always change, so answers about predictions tend to have correct answers talking about changes that could influence the prediction.