Logical reasoning PrepTest 107 · Section 4 · Question 9

Question prompt

Because of increases in Remaining source text redacted.
Why the credited answer is right

Credited answer: D

The notes below walk through why it fits the stem and how to eliminate the rest.

Argument or Facts

Argument

Valid or Flawed

Flawed

Question Type

Weaken Questions

Stimulus Summary

1970-Present - Oil prices and conservation policies led people to adopt natural gas
Switching costs money for equipment
Prediction - A switch back in the near future is unlikely

Answer Anticipation

The question stem asks us to undermine the prediction made at the end of the passage, but it also asks us to do so by finding something that may have happened in the past few years. Let’s keep that in mind as we anticipate an answer.
Let’s start with the prediction at the end - a switch back to oil from natural gas is unlikely. Since we’re trying to undermine this, we want to find an answer that suggests the switch back is more likely than believed.
So why does the argument say the switch is unlikely? Because when people switched, they invested in equipment. So there’s a cost associated with switching that may stop people from switching back.
As such, any answer that brings something up that would mitigate this cost, or suggest that the equipment wouldn’t stop people from swapping back, would serve to weaken the prediction here. Let’s look for an answer that does that.

Answer choices

  1. A
    the price of natural Remaining source text redacted.
    Why choice A is not credited
    If it’s cheaper than ever to switch while fuel costs have held stable, then, if anything, that suggests people will be switching to natural gas, not back to oil!
  2. B
    the price of home Remaining source text redacted.
    Why choice B is not credited
    This answer might suggest that new people won’t switch because the equipment cost is high, but the people who have already switched wouldn’t have to pay the increased equipment cost. As such, it doesn’t undermine the prediction that people won’t switch back to oil.
  3. C
    the cost of equipment Remaining source text redacted.
    Why choice C is not credited
    While the cost of oil is back down, the government policies to promote a switch are still presumably in place, and the switching cost is low, so there’s no reason to think people will switch back.
  4. D
    the cost of equipment Remaining source text redacted.
    Why choice D matches the stem
    If all of the costs associated with heating a home with oil have gone down, and the cost of heating itself is now lower than the cost of heating with natural gas, then people have an economic reason to switch back, thus undermining the prediction. This answer is therefore correct.
  5. E
    the use of oil Remaining source text redacted.
    Why choice E is not credited
    Note the difference between this answer and (D). There, it was specifically noted that oil is cheaper than natural gas. This answer establishes only that oil prices have gone down. Without knowing that it’s cheaper than the natural gas that people switched to, we don’t know if there’s an economic incentive to switch back.

What this tests

Question analytics

Based on historical answer selection rates for this question.

Answer choice distribution

  1. A 10%
  2. B 13%
  3. C 8%
  4. D Credited 66%
  5. E 2%

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