Logical reasoning PrepTest 105 · Section 2 · Question 18

Question prompt

In recent years the Remaining source text redacted.
Why the credited answer is right

Credited answer: C

The notes below walk through why it fits the stem and how to eliminate the rest.

Argument or Facts

Facts

Valid or Flawed

NA

Question Type

Paradox Questions

Stimulus Summary

Northern Asia has seen significantly increased crop yields when daily temperature and humidity was slightly above normal. Those higher levels are expected to be the norm next century, but scientists predict crop yields will go down.

Answer Anticipation

As with all Paradox questions, we should start by clearly defining the Paradox. Here, we learn that periods of slightly higher than normal temperature and humidity have been correlated with significantly increased crop yields. This might lead you to expect that next century, when those higher temperatures and humidity are the new norm, people would predict the increased yields would also be the norm. That’s not the case, however - predictions are that crop yields will go down. So we have a noted change that’s leading to an unexpected outcome. There must be something different about next century compared to this one that can explain why scientists predict crop yields will go down. Is there any hint in the stimulus as to what this difference may be? Well, the higher temperatures/humidity are going from outliers to the norm, so that may play a role in it. Other than that, though, anything that will be different next century that may counteract the beneficial temperature/humidity for crop yields and actually cause them to decrease will resolve this paradox, so let’s find an answer that raises one.

Answer choices

  1. A
    Crop yields in southern Remaining source text redacted.
    Why choice A is not credited
    First, this answer is about southern Asia and the paradox is about northern Asia. Second, southern Asia isn’t seeing their crop yields go down, even though their temperature/climate are following the same pattern. There are two reasons this answer doesn’t resolve the paradox!
  2. B
    Any increases in temperature Remaining source text redacted.
    Why choice B is not credited
    This answer shows that the noted climate changes would also increase CO2 levels, which would help plants. As such, this answer makes the paradox worse, since we’re attempting to explain a predicted decrease in crop/plant growth.
  3. C
    The climate in northern Remaining source text redacted.
    Why choice C matches the stem
    This answer highlights something that would change if the higher temperatures and humidity became constant instead of outliers. The insect pests couldn’t gain a foothold because the temperature and humidity decreased after being above the norm. If it’s the norm, then these insect pests could become established and eat the crops, thus explaining a decrease in yields.
  4. D
    In many parts of Remaining source text redacted.
    Why choice D is not credited
    This answer makes the paradox worse by suggesting that the noted climate changes should lead crops (“edible plant species”) to flourish, not decrease.
  5. E
    The recent climate of Remaining source text redacted.
    Why choice E is not credited
    First, this answer applies only to “many” crops - there could be many others that grow in the winter. Second, if the temperature gets warmer, then it might be the case that these crops could be grown in the winter, which would suggest increased yields, not decreased.

What this tests

Question analytics

Based on historical answer selection rates for this question.

Answer choice distribution

  1. A 8%
  2. B 13%
  3. C Credited 57%
  4. D 3%
  5. E 18%

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Discussion

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